Brandt, Patrick T.; Freeman, John R.; Schrodt, Philip A. - In: International Journal of Forecasting 30 (2014) 4, pp. 944-962
There is considerable interest today in the forecasting of conflict dynamics. Commonly, the root mean square error and other point metrics are used to evaluate the forecasts from such models. However, conflict processes are non-linear, so these point metrics often do not produce adequate...