A central maxim in statistics is that correlation does not imply causation, and a lack of correlation does not imply a lack of causation. However, this does not mean that correlation contains no informational content whatsoever for causality. In this paper, I propose a tractable characterisation...

In this paper, I propose a tractable approach to Bayesian inference in linear regression models for which the standard exogeneity assumption does not hold. By specifying a beta prior for the squared correlation between an error term and regressor, I demonstrate that the implied prior for a bias...

This paper introduces unemployment hysteresis into a tractable New Keynesian three equation model using an insider-outsider labour market. We demonstrate that strict inflation targeting can lead to a unit root in the unemployment rate, but dual mandate monetary policy can stabilise the economy...

While economic theory has been applied to numerous topics in economic history, there are very few attempts to interpret major macroeconomic shocks from the perspective of standard Keynesian theory. This paper presents a history of aggregate demand and supply shocks spanning 1900 - 2016 for the...

This paper presents workforce job counts for British local authority districts between the years 1981 and 2018. The estimates are produced by adjusting local authority job counts drawn from the Census of Employment, Annual Employment Survey, Annual Business Inquiry, and Business Register and...