We examine the optimal consumption/saving and portfolio allocation responses of rational households subject to an exogenous change in the terms of the Social Security contract. Our analysis uses key features of the actual contract, an exogenous labor income process calibrated to IRS...

If a nonlinear risk premium in a conditional asset pricing model is approximated with a linear function, as is commonly done in empirical research, the fitted model is misspecified. We use a generic reduced-form model economy with moderate risk premium nonlinearity to examine the size of the...

We examine the connection between tail risk — as measured in Kelly and Jiang (2014) — and the cross-section of expected returns. In conditional predictive regression systems and vector-autoregressions of the market portfolio and the long- and shoresides of the Fama-French factor portfolios,...

We construct a simple reduced-form example of a conditional pricing model with modest intrinsic nonlinearity. The theoretical magnitude of the pricing errors (alphas) induced by the application of standard linear conditioning are derived as a direct consequence of an omitted variables bias. When...

We examine the optimal portfolio choices of young and old fund managers in a calibrated dynamic life-cyle model of the active manager's investment problem. The optimal policies of any manager depend on age, the wealth to labor income ratio, the value of the manager's private information, and...

We use a general equilibrium model as a laboratory for generating predictable excess returns and for assessing the properties of the estimated consumption/portfolio rules, under both the empirical and the true dynamics of excess returns. The advantage of this approach, relative to the existing...