We find a strong link between currency excess returns and the relative strength of the business cycle. Buying currencies of strong economies and selling currencies of weak economies generates high returns both in the cross section and time series of countries. These returns stem primarily from...

This paper documents that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide crosssection of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: an increase of 1°F in the average summer temperature is...

We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices, and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with a decrease in its output, consumption, and net exports....

We develop a novel measure of volatility pass-through to assess international propagation of output volatility shocks to macroeconomic aggregates, equity prices,and currencies. An increase in country's output volatility is associated with adecrease in its output, consumption, and net exports....

Focusing on US and UK, we document that both the Backus and Smith (1993) finding -- concerning the low correlation between consumption differentials and exchange rates -- and the forward-premium anomaly -- concerning the tendency of high interest rate currencies to appreciate -- have become more...