Policymakers considering interventions that improve cognitive performance (IQ) need estimates of the value of IQ improvements. Using the classical model of structured expert judgment, we develop estimates of the percentage increase in earned income from interventions to increase IQ in India. Our...

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions not only lowers expected damages from climate change but also reduces the risk of catastrophic impacts. However, estimates of the social cost of carbon, which measures the marginal value of carbon dioxide abatement, often do not capture this risk reduction...

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions not only lowers expected damages from climate change but also reduces the risk of catastrophic impacts. However, estimates of the social cost of carbon, which measures the marginal value of carbon dioxide abatement, often do not capture this risk reduction...

We use the classical model, a method for structured expert judgment (SEJ), to study the effects of breastfeeding on IQ. Data on the link between breastfeeding and IQ are available, e.g., the US National Longitudinal Study of Youth, however, questions about data quality and confounding mean...

Regular vines or vine copula provide a rich class of multivariate densities with arbitrary one dimensional margins and Gaussian or non-Gaussian dependence structures. The density enables calculation of all conditional distributions, in particular, regression functions for any subset of variables...

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded...

Deep and shallow uncertainty are defined and contrasted with regard to messaging the uncertainty about climate change. Deep uncertainty is often traced back to the writings of Frank Knight, where in fact it simply meant subjective probability. Although Knight envisioned a scientifically grounded...

Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting...