It is often suggested that non-linear models are needed to capture business cycle features. In this paper, we subject this view to some critical analysis. We examine two types of non-linear models designed to capture the bounce-back effect in US expansions. This means that these non-linear...

The purchasing power parity puzzle relates to the adjustment of real exchange rates. Real exchange rates are extremely volatile, suggesting that temporary shocks emanate from the monetary sector. But the half-life of real exchange rate deviations is extremely large -- 2.5 to 5 years. This...

Over the past decade value at risk (VaR) has become the most widely used technique for the quantification of market-risk exposure. VaR is a measure of the potential loss that may occur from adverse moves in market prices (interest rates, exchange rates, equity prices and so forth). The capacity...

Americans who are caught evading taxes in one year may be audited for prior years. While the IRS does not disclose its method of selecting tax returns to audit, it is widely believed that a taxpayer's probability of being audited is an increasing function of current evasion. Under these...