Haran, Uriel; Moore, Don A.; Morewedge, Carey K. - In: Judgment and Decision Making 5 (2010) 7, pp. 467-476
Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event....