Alternative fiscal consolidation strategies are examined in the context of a medium-scale econometric model estimated on Slovak data. The multipliers associated with adjustment on the spending side are generally larger than on the revenue side, which is not uncommon for this class of models. In...

The basic assumption on which leading indicators are built is the common movement of macroeconomic variables representing the aggregate business cycle, giving information on turning points for different macroeconomic variables over time. Indicators passing through the turning points with few...

The economy of Slovakia experienced a turning point in the 1st half of 2008 and entered a phase of decline. The negative impacts of the global economic crisis became evident in the 2nd half of 2008 and led into a recession in the 1st quarter of 2009. The composite leading indicator was...

Cyclical performance of economies in a turbulent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points between the phases of slowdowns and accelerations. The most appropriate tool to solve this problem is the composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregate...