Abstract We derive a class of design-based estimators for the average treatment effect that are unbiased whenever the treatment assignment process is known. We generalize these estimators to include unbiased covariate adjustment using any model for outcomes that the analyst chooses. We then...

Ballot initiatives are consequential and common, with total spending on initiative campaigns in the US rivaling that of Presidential campaigns. Observational studies using regression approaches on observational data have alternately found that initiative campaign spending cannot affect...

Ballot initiatives are consequential and common, with total spending on initiative campaigns in the US rivaling that of Presidential campaigns. Observational studies using regression approaches on observational data have alternately found that initiative campaign spending cannot affect...

Many estimators of the average treatment effect, including difference-in-means, may be biased when clusters of units are allocated to treatment. This bias may remain even when the number of units grows asymptotically large. In this paper, we propose simple, unbiased and scale-invariant...

Abstract Many estimators of the average treatment effect, including the difference-in-means, may be biased when clusters of units are allocated to treatment. This bias remains even when the number of units within each cluster grows asymptotically large. In this paper, we propose simple,...

One of the hallmarks of the 2004 presidential election was the unusual emphasis on face-to-face voter mobilization, particularly face-to-face mobilization conducted within neighborhoods or social networks. Unlike previous studies of face-to-face voter mobilization, which have focused largely on...

We derive a class of design-based estimators for the average treatment effect that are unbiased whenever the treatment assignment process is known. We generalize these estimators to include unbiased covariate adjustment using any model for outcomes that the analyst chooses. We then provide...

Ballot initiatives are consequential and common, with total spending on initiative campaigns in the US rivaling that of Presidential campaigns. Observational studies using regression approaches on observational data have alternately found that initiative campaign spending cannot affect...

Correspondence between economic conditions and incumbent electoral success is observed with such regularity that the theory of economic voting has achieved near axiomatic status. Yet the microfoundations of economic voting are not entirely clear. Quattrone and Tversky (1988) posit that prospect...