Despite the global spread of autocratic elections, formal modeling has been lacking on regime transitions to and from electoral authoritarianism. Building on the formal literature on democratization, this paper introduces a model in which a dictator chooses between closed authoritarianism,...

Despite widespread scholarly interest in electoral authoritarian regimes, formal modeling has been lacking on the function of authoritarian elections and their influence on policy and regime development. This study introduces a formal mechanism through which controlled elections credibly reveal...

We analyze an under-studied mode of democratization in which the acquiescence of an autocratic regime's external ally, or patron, is pivotal to the success of a democratic movement. Although a democratic patron may prefer having democracy in its dependent allies, regime change threatens the...

Building on the formal literature on democratization, this paper models a dictator’s choice between closed authoritarianism, electoral authoritarianism, and democracy in the shadow of violent revolt. Under autocracy, the dictator controls policy but lacks information on the policy demands...

We analyze an understudied mode of democratization in which the acquiescence of an autocratic regime’s foreign ally, or patron, is pivotal to the success of a democratic movement. Although a democratic patron may prefer having democracy in its dependent allies, regime change threatens the...

In spatial models of electoral competition, candidate quality is typically modeled as valence, a measure of general appeal assumed to be constant across voters. This paper introduces and formally models an alternative conception of candidate quality according to which candidates differ in their...