We introduce a new approach to denoising correlation matrices that imposes a block structure with a fixed block-dependent pair-wise correlation within each block and a constant correlation specified for each pair of blocks. We characterize the eigenvalue spectrum and modify the Marchenko-Pastur...

This paper shows analytically that the basis between spot and futures contracts contains information about future returns of securities across the asset classes of commodities, equity indices, fixed income and foreign exchange. The bases in commodities are positively correlated with a leading...

I show analytically that a volatility-targeted allocation methodology improves the risk-adjusted performance of portfolios under a broad set of assumptions regarding the serial correlation of returns, the variability of volatility and dependence of the expected Sharpe ratio on the level of...

This paper comprehensively investigates risk premia in Chinese commodity markets, which are very different from the US markets because of the heavy regulation that attempts to prevent speculation with time-contingent margining and forced liquidation rules, and market participation that is...

Recent work by Berk and van Binsbergen (2016) has shown that the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) best models the revealed preferences of any investor who could invest in mutual funds – that is, all investors. This claim seems overly broad since it applies to all asset classes. However, we...

Intuitively, option-like compensation contracts induce risk-shifting behavior, confirmed by numerous empirical studies. However, theoretical work has shown that risk shifting should not happen without a definite expiration date of the option. With a sample of Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs),...

While much is known about the financialization of commodities, less is known about how to profitably invest in commodities. We develop a four-factor asset pricing model of commodity returns. Our four-factor model prices both commodity spot and term risk premia in an intuitive manner related to...

This paper introduces a Modified Hierarchical Risk Parity ("MHRP") approach that extends the HRP approach by incorporating three intuitive elements commonly used by practitioners. The new approach (i) replaces the sample covariance matrix with an exponentially weighted covariance matrix with...

This paper examines the performance of time-series momentum strategies using daily returns for 78 futures markets across four major asset classes between January 1985 and December 2017. We find that the 252-day, 63-day and 21-day momentum strategies perform similarly to the previously documented...