Nahezu die Hälfte der Bundestagsmandate wird über die Direktwahl in den Wahlkreisen vergeben. Das bleibt in einem Großteil der Wahlprognosemodelle jedoch unberücksichtigt. In diesem Beitrag stellen wir einen Ansatz zur Vorhersage der Erststimmenanteile in Wahlkreisen für Bundestagswahlen...

Speculations about whether strategic voting made a difference to the outcome of an election regularly whip up the passions of pundits, party strategists, electoral reformers, and scholars alike. Yet, research on strategic voting's political effect has been hampered by the scarcity of data on...

The quantity of citations (“times cited”) has evolved into an influential indicator of scientific impact both in itself and packaged into other metrics (e.g. h-index, impact factor). In this study we contrast the idea of “quantity” with the idea of the “quality” of citations, i.e....

CDU/CSU 38.1%, SPD 28.2%, B‘90/Die Grünen 13.5%, Die Linke 7.7%, FDP 5.4%, others 6.5% – these are our (point) estimates of the party vote shares at the upcoming Bundestag election. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of...

We draw attention to a simple yet underappreciated way of forecasting the outcomes of elections involving two rounds of voting: surveying the voters’ candidate evaluations in first round exit polls, poststratifying the sample proportions of reported votes to official first round election...