To study the characteristics-sorted factor model in asset pricing, we develop a bottom-up approach with state-of-the-art deep learning optimization. With an economic objective to minimize pricing errors, we train a non-reduced-form neural network using firm characteristics [inputs], and generate...

Regularizing Bayesian predictive regressions provides a framework for prior sensitivity analysis via the regularization path. We jointly regularize both expectations and variance-covariance matrices using a pair of shrinkage priors. Our methodology applies directly to vector autoregressions...

This paper finds statistically and economically significant out-of-sample portfolio benefits for an investor who uses models of return predictability when forming optimal portfolios. The key is that investors must incorporate an ensemble of important features into their optimal portfolio...

This paper proposes an empirical test of financial contagion in European equity markets during the tumultuous period of 2008-2011. Our analysis shows that traditional GARCH and Gaussian stochastic-volatility models are unable to explain two key stylized features of global markets during...