Extreme weather and conflict may drive forced displacement. However, their individual contribution to displacement is not fully understood due to challenges around isolating individual channels of causality. Here, we use novel disaggregated data on internal displacement in all of Somalia’s...

Mineral and material commodities are essential inputs to economic production, but there have been periodical concerns about mineral scarcity. However, there has been no systematic recent study that has determined whether mineral commodities have become scarcer over the longer run. Here we...

Quantifying the uncertainty around structural breaks is crucial to attribute breaks to potential causes. Step-Indicator saturation (SIS, see Castle et al 2015) allows for the detection of structural breaks using model selection, however, little is known about the uncertainty around the timing of...

Policymakers combine many different policy tools to achieve emission reductions. However, there remains substantial uncertainty around which mixes of policies are effective. This uncertainty stems from the predominant focus of ex post policy evaluation on isolating effects of single, known...

Using newly constructed sector-specific carbon price data, we study the response of CO2 emissions to carbon pricing policies for a cross-country panel covering 1990–2016. We explicitly estimate the distinct effects of policy introduction (regardless of the price level) and effects attributable...

We study the response of CO2 emissions to carbon pricing for a cross-country panel covering 1990–2016 using newly constructed sector-specific carbon price data. Unlike previous empirical studies evaluating carbon pricing impacts, we explicitly distinguish between the effects of policy...

Quantifying the economic impacts of climate change is crucial to inform mitigation and adaptation policy but faces challenges surrounding impacts of climate extremes and uncertainty around the range of plausible adaptation pathways. We overcome these by using machine learning and econometric...

Much of empirical research focuses on forward causal questions (``Does X cause Y?'') while answering reverse causal questions (``What causes Y?'') can provide invaluable insights but is difficult to implement in practice. Here we operationalise the modelling of reverse causal questions through...