Despite the exorbitant cost of financial crises had highlighted the importance of early warning systems for financial fragility, existing models failed to signal warnings for the 2007-2010 crisis. Using a signal extraction framework and looking at OECD countries over a 27 year period, this paper...

Using a signal extraction framework and looking at OECD countries over a 30 year period this paper attempts to identify a number of variables significant in predicting near-crises as a pre-cursor to full-fledged crises. These include growth in pension assets as an indicator for the development...