Conditional logistic regression has remained a mainstay in predicting horse racing out- comes since the 1980’s. In this paper, we propose and apply novel modifications of the regression model to include parameter regularization and a frailty contribution that exploits winning dividends....

Horse racing is the most popular sport in Hong Kong. Nowhere else in the world is such attention paid to the races and such large sums of money bet. It is literally a “national sport”. Popular literature has many stories about computerized “betting teams” winning fortunes by using...