The field-based experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from more than 100 competent investors at the pick of the financial crisis. The average annual return on 117 portfolios was 5.2% with 55% profitability rate. Prior self confidence emerges as the...

The field experimental approach was utilized to collect expectations-arbitrage portfolios from competent investors in late 2008 where stock prices shrunk by 50%. Positions were closed after 3 months and the 4-factor model was applied to characterize strategies and derive risk-adjusted returns....

The experimental approach is applied to explore the value of unidentified historical information in stock-return prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross section and time from historical S&P500 data. Subjects were requested to predict returns or select stocks from 12 preceding...

Three experiments are designed to test if the level of irrelevant prizes in the menu has a positive (assimilation) or negative (contrast) effect on the perceived valuation of target objects. Familiar field prizes and binary lotteries over such prizes are placed within “more-expensive” and...

We study the effect of variation in correlation on investment decision in an experimental two asset application. Comparison of allocations across problems suggests that subjects neglect probabilistic information on the joint distribution of returns and base their allocations on the observed...

The standard interval forecasting task is modified, asking subjects to provide point predictions for future returns and assess the likelihood of fixed length intervals around their point estimates. The difference between the subjective likelihood estimates and the realized hit rate is advanced...

The return on composite investment instruments takes the form of weighted-average, derived from the performance of at least two economic indicators. Three allocation experiments illustrate that prospective investors tend to valuate composites "by-tranche", consistently violating the rational...

Class and field surveys revealed that personal inclination to take structured lottery-risk significantly correlates with optimism in financial forecasting. Trait optimism reflects in return predictions for successful and problematic stocks, in likelihood assessments of specific events, and even...