Miller and Sanjurjo (2015) suggest that the alternation bias in people's observation of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials might be due to a selection bias, by which an empirical conditional probability p^(H|H) is repeatedly sampled from sequences of finite length. Here we...

The gambler's fallacy and the hot hand belief have been classified as two exemplars of human misperceptions of random sequential events. This article examines the times of pattern occurrences where a fair or biased coin is tossed repeatedly. We demonstrate that, due to different pattern...