We propose a new model to decompose inflation swaps into genuine inflation expectations and risk premiums. We develop a no-arbitrage term structure model with stochastic endpoints, separating macroeconomic variables into transitory parts and long-run, economically grounded determinants, such as...

The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This paper uses the Bundesbank's online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment...

The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This paper uses the Bundesbank's online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment...

We propose a new model to decompose inflation swaps into genuine inflation expectations and risk premiums. We develop a no-arbitrage term structure model with stochastic endpoints, separating macroeconomic variables into transitory parts and long-run, economically grounded determinants, such as...

We propose a new model to decompose inflation swaps into genuine inflation expectations and risk premiums. We develop a no-arbitrage term structure model with stochastic endpoints, separating macroeconomic variables into transitory parts and long-run, economically-grounded, determinants, such as...

We use survey evidence on reported spending in hypothetical energy price shock scenarios to study novel features of the price elasticity of energy demand and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) after paying the energy bill. We find that the price elasticity is significantly larger for price...

We use survey evidence on reported spending in hypothetical energy price shock scenarios to study novel features of the price elasticity of energy demand and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) after paying the energy bill. We find that the price elasticity is significantly larger for price...

We use survey evidence on reported spending in hypothetical energy price shock scenarios to study novel features of the price elasticity of energy demand and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) after paying the energy bill. We document several nonlinearities depending on the sign and...

We use survey evidence on reported spending in hypothetical energy price shock scenarios to study novel features of the price elasticity of energy demand and the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) after paying the energy bill. We find that the price elasticity is significantly larger for price...