Sonsino, Doron; Regev, Eran - In: Journal of Economic Psychology 39 (2013) C, pp. 72-84
A field experiment revealed 3 forms of unrealistic optimism in skilled investors’ interval predictions of future stock returns. The judgmental intervals were about 50% shorter than realized spreads in recent 3–6months histories, suggesting that “underestimation of volatility” persists...