Search Results - subject:"Adaptive expectations"

The return expectations of public pension funds

Andonov, Aleksandar; Rauh, Joshua - In: The review of financial studies 35 (2022) 8, pp. 3777-3822

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013350123

Expectations, stagnation, and fiscal policy : a nonlinear analysis

Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - In: International economic review 63 (2022) 3, pp. 1397-1425

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013387630

Limits on Regret as a Tool for Incentive Design

Araújo, Felipe Augusto de; Imas, Alex; Wilson, Alistair J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We demonstrate the pitfalls when extrapolating behavioral findings across different contexts and decision environments. We focus on regret theory and the use of "regret lotteries" for motivating behavior change. Here, findings from one-shot settings have been used to promote regret as a tool to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635722

Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think: Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations

Palestrini, Antonio; Delli Gatti, Domenico; Gallegati, Mauro - 2021

Agents forming adaptive expectations generally make systematic mistakes. This characterization has fostered the … rejection of adaptive expectations in macroeconomics. Experimental evidence, however, shows that in complex environments human … show that adaptive agents may not be as gullible as we used to think. In a model with adaptive expectations augmented with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012657911

U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets: both shocks and vulnerabilities matter

Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert - 2021

We explore how the sources of shocks driving interest rates, country vulnerabilities, and central bank communications affect the spillovers of U.S. monetary policy changes to emerging market economies (EMEs). We utilize a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions and partly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584356

U.S. monetary policy spillovers to emerging markets : both shocks and vulnerabilities matter

Ahmed, Shaghil; Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012590277

Adaptive Agents May Be Smarter than You Think : Unbiasedness in Adaptive Expectations

Palestrini, Antonio; Gallegati, Mauro; Delli Gatti, Domenico - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013217385

Adaptive Consumption Behavior

Howitt, Peter; Özak, Ömer - 2021

This paper proposes and studies a theory of adaptive consumption behavior under income uncertainty and liquidity constraints. We assume that consumption is governed by a linear function of wealth, whose coefficients are revised each period by a procedure, which, although sophisticated, places...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245337

Adaptive Learning, Persistence, and Optimal Monetary Policy

Gaspar, Vítor; Smets, Frank; Vestin, David - 2021

We show that, when private sector expectations are determined in line with adaptive learning, optimal policy responds persistently to cost-push shocks. The optimal response is stronger and more persistent, the higher is the initial level of perceived inflation persistence by the private sector....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317572

Performance of Monetary Policy with Internal Central Bank Forecasting

Honkapohja, Seppo; Mitra, Kaushik - 2021

Recent models of monetary policy have analyzed the desirability of different optimal and ad hoc interest rules under the restrictive assumption that forecasts of the private sector and the central bank are homogenous. In this paper, we study the implications of heterogeneity in forecasts of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320251