Candelon, Bertrand; Ahmed, Jameel; Straetmans, Stefan - Institut de Préparation à l'Administration et à la … - 2014
his paper attempts to predict the bear conditions on the US stock market. To this aim we elaborate simple predictive regressions, static and dynamic binary choice (BCM) as well as Markov-switching models. The in- and out-of-sample prediction ability is evaluated and we compare the forecasting...