Not according to our data. We use two data sets to test whether professional forecasters follow uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) when making their exchange rate predictions both based on point prediction and direction. We find that professional forecasters generally do not follow UIP across...

No, not according to our data. Using a unique data set, we run panel regressions to test whether professional forecasters believe in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). Specifically, we test whether the interest rate expectations for individual forecasters are in line with their exchange rate...

No, not according to our data. Using a unique data set, we run panel regressions to test whether professional forecasters believe in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). Specifically, we test whether the interest rate expectations for individual forecasters are in line with their exchange rate...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...

We provide key insights on expectation formation based on the Bloomberg economic survey: around two thirds of professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the annual. Temporally consistent forecasts are not more...