Belu Manescu, Cristiana; Van Robays, Ine - 2016
This paper explores a range of different forecast methods for Brent oil prices and analyses their performance relative … oil prices. A four-model combination - consisting of futures, risk-adjusted futures, a Bayesian VAR and a DSGE model of … across forecast horizons. To address this instability, we propose a forecast combination for predicting quarterly real Brent …