Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - In: Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice 5 (2016) 3, pp. 61-78
This paper aims at assessing the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we test the predictive power of the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) within a static probit model as a leading indicator, commonly perceived to be able to provide a reliable...