Merz, Michael; Wüthrich, Mario V. - In: Risks : open access journal 3 (2015) 4, pp. 624-646
The Munich chain-ladder method for claims reserving was introduced by Quarg and Mack on an axiomatic basis. We analyze … these axioms, and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder method which is based on an explicit stochastic model. This … stochastic model then allows us to consider claims prediction and prediction uncertainty for the Munich chain-ladder method in a …