A new method of forecasting the pricing kernel, i.e., stochastic claim inflation or link ratio function, of incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims (in property casualty insurance) from residuals in a dynamic claims forecast model is presented. We employ a pseudo Kalman filter approach by using...

The solvency II regulation for the non-life insurance business focuses on the application of the chain-ladder method in the EU. A recent memorandum of the EU also expresses its concern about the treatment of outlying data. Not only the appearance but certainly the consequences for the solvency...