I study a model a futures market model with imperfectly competitive traders, some precluded to trade spot (financial traders), some not (physical traders). I first show that, suprisingly, introducing futures makes physical traders worse off without financial traders, because physical traders...

This paper proposes an EEMD-Hurst-LSTM prediction method based on the ensemble learning framework, which is applied to the prediction of typical commodities in China's commodity futures market. This method performs ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) on commodity futures prices, and...

We propose a novel measure of the ex-ante commodity downside-risk premium (CDP) for each commodity based on a term structure model of commodity futures. Our theory-based CDP, capturing forward-looking information in the futures markets, outperforms well-known characteristics in explaining the...

Aim: Commodity exporting nations have significant terms of trade swings, making their actual exchange rate unstable. This study looked at how variations in dollar exchange rate affected food commodity prices in Africa between 1990 and 2021. Design/Research methods: The study conducted GARCH...

The idea that wages rise relative to alternatives as job seniority accumulates is the foundation of the theory of specific human capital, as well as other widely accepted theories of compensation. The fact that persons with longer job tenures typically earn higher wages tends to support these...

This paper assesses the effects and transmission mechanisms of global liquidity and commodity market shocks in Mongolia, a commodity-exporting developing economy, using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Results show that boom and bust cycles in commodity and international...

This paper provides robust evidence of global liquidity on global commodity prices in some major developing and developed economies. Specifically, we investigate the global liquidity and global commodity prices for six majors developing and emerging economies; Brazil, Russia, India, China, South...

The Prebisch-Singer (PS) hypothesis [Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems, United Nations Publications: New York, NY, (1950); The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries, American Economic Review , 40 (1950) 473-485] implies that there should...