We conduct a thorough analysis on the role played by the unobserved systematic risk factor in default prediction. We find that this latent factor outweighs the observed systematic risk factors and can substantially improve the in-sample predictive accuracy at the firm, rating group, and...

Recent research on the subprime crisis and rollover risk suggests that debt market liquidity is a major factor affecting the risk of default. This implies that firms that rely heavily on short-term debt, such as commercial paper (CP), are at greater risk of default. Debt market illiquidity could...