Search Results - subject:"Counterfactuals"

A Linear “Microscope” for Interventions and Counterfactuals

Pearl, Judea - In: Journal of Causal Inference 5 (2017) 1

Abstract This note illustrates, using simple examples, how causal questions of non-trivial character can be represented, analyzed and solved using linear analysis and path diagrams. By producing closed form solutions, linear analysis allows for swift assessment of how various features of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014610857

Physical and Metaphysical Counterfactuals: Evaluating Disjunctive Actions

Pearl, Judea - In: Journal of Causal Inference 5 (2017) 2

Abstract The structural interpretation of counterfactuals as formulated in Balke and Pearl (1994a,b) [ 1 , 2 ] excludes …{or}~X=x_2)$ . In contrast, the closest-world interpretation of counterfactuals (e.g. Lewis (1973a) [ 3 ]) assigns truth values … process of “mass-shifting” among possible worlds, to define disjunction in structural counterfactuals. We show that every …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014610862

Differences in Positions along a Hierarchy: Counterfactuals Based on an Assignment Model

Gobillon, Laurent; Meurs, Dominique; Roux, Sébastien - 2017

We propose an assignment model in which positions along a hierarchy are attributed to individuals depending on their characteristics. Our theoretical framework can be used to study differences in assignment and outcomes across groups and we show how it can motivate decomposition and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011653454

The cost of sanctions : estimating lost trade with gravity

Hinz, Julian - 2017

Economic sanctions are a frequently used tool of foreign policy. Constraining trade flows towards or from the target country is supposed to coerce its government into changing certain policies. However, sanctions constitute an obstacle to trade, thereby affecting flows of all countries,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746005

House prices and monetary policy in the euro area : evidence from structural VARs

Nocera, Andrea; Roma, Moreno - 2017

We use a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection structural VAR model to investigate the heterogeneous impact of housing demand shocks on the macro-economy and the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission, across euro area countries. A novel set of identification...