Lopez-Salido, J. David; Stein, Jeremy C.; Zakrajsek, Egon - Federal Reserve Board (Board of Governors of the … - 2015
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t-2 is associated with a … onset of a contraction in economic activity. Exploring the mechanism, we find that buoyant credit-market sentiment in year t …