Hall, Anthony D.; Skalin, Joakim; Teräsvirta, Timo - Economics Institute for Research (SIR), … - 1998
measure of El Niño events. Using standard measures there is no indication of nonstationarity in the index. A logistic smooth … transition autoregressive model describes the most turbulent periods in the data (these correspond to El Niño events) better than … nonlinear model may still be useful for forecasting the El Niño Southern Oscillation a few months ahead. …