This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (BHOF), which forecasts daily heating oil demand for individual customers who are enrolled in an automatic delivery...

Risk aversion is a key element of utility maximizing hedge strategies; however, it hastypically been assigned an arbitrary value in the literature. This paper instead applies a GARCH-in-Mean (GARCH-M) model to estimate a time-varying measure of riskaversion that is based on the observed risk...

In this analysis, we projected Japans energy demand/supply and energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050. Our analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japans CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005) (Figure 1). These results suggest that Japan...