The Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper III (GPRS-III) will provide a framework for the government’s economic, financial, and sectoral policies for the period 2012–17. All performance criteria (PC) and indicative targets through end-December were observed, except for the...

Kenya’s economy is bouncing back following multiple shocks between 2008 and 2009. The program targets a gradual reduction in the central government primary balance through tax reform and strict control of current spending to bring the debt-to-GDP ratio below 45 percent at the end of the...

This report provides an assessment of fiscal transparency practices in El Salvador. Many of the code standards are followed by the country. In addition, fiscal data dissemination and monthly updating will be improved with the recent incorporation of the Finance Ministry’s Fiscal...

Owing to the deteriorating economy of Guatemala, authorities requested a Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with access of SDR 630.6 million in April 2009, which aimed at safeguarding macroeconomic and financial stability and anchoring investor confidence. Executive Directors have agreed that the SBA is...

The enhanced Stability and Growth Pact calls on euro area members and aspirants to set boundaries to fiscal deficits through high-level legislation. A limit on the deficit, such as the deficit ceiling in Bulgaria's organic budget law, serves to protect solvency. The recent crisis clearly...

This paper quantifies the variability of tax elasticities in Lithuania using two alternative methods: rolling regressions and pooled mean group estimator. The analysis is motivated by the systematic variation of tax revenues observed over the economic cycle in the recent past. Both methods...

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt projections as a result of uncertain economic conditions and policies. We propose a simulation algorithm...

Timor-Leste is a unitary state and has made significant progress with improving its fiscal transparency. The government has adopted a transparent, fiscally sustainable governance framework for the petroleum sector. Nonetheless, there are still many areas in which Timor-Leste diverges from the...

This Article IV Consultation reports that the main challenge is to maintain macroeconomic stability in substantial demand shock from the construction of two major liquefied natural gas projects. The global downturn had only a mild impact, as growth was supported by still strong terms of trade, a...

Indonesia has improved fiscal transparency; tax legislation has been substantially revised; tax administration is improving; legal and administrative measures have been adopted to improve public sector governance; and important steps have been taken to rationalize government banking arrangements....