Alquist, Ron; Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - In: Handbook of Economic Forecasting : volume 2, part A, (pp. 427-507). 2013
We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need to know about the choice of sample period and about the tradeoffs between alternative oil price series and model specifications? Are real and nominal oil prices predictable...