Schmittlein, David C.; Kim, Jinho; Morrison, Donald G. - In: Management Science 36 (1990) 9, pp. 1044-1056
combining forecasts. The optimality of Winkler's formula is, however, contingent on actually knowing the forecasters …' statistical properties, i.e., the variances and covariances of their forecasts. In realistic applications, of course, these … properties have to be estimated, usually from a set of prior forecasts. In this case we show how the "operationally optimal …