Lang, Jan Hannes; Rusnák, Marek; Greiwe, Moritz - 2023
(growth-at-risk) in the short-term (1-year ahead). However, only vulnerability indicators contain information about growth-at-risk …-of-sample predictive ability for medium-term growth-at-risk in euro area countries. Shocks to the SRI induce a rich "term structure" for … growth-at-risk: downside risks to real GDP growth are reduced in the short-term, but over the medium-term the effect reverses …