Robles Fernandez, M. Dolores; Serrano, José Luis Fernández - Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, … - 2001
The analysis of the future behaviour of economic variables can be biased if structural breaks are not considered. When these structural breaks are present, the in-sample fit of a model gives us a poor guide to ex-ante forecast performance. This problem is shared by univariate and multivariate...