In this paper a new method of constructing the leading economic index is presented. Its main advantage is the ability to distinguish domestic and foreign factors influencing the growth of economy and it is performed via dynamic hierarchical factor modelling. An application is carried out with...

Economic Recovery in the Euro Area has lost momentum in the second half of 2015. Due to dampening effects from the world economy and a marked increase in political uncertainty, a number of sentiment indicators also point downwards. Nevertheless, domestic demand increased rather strongly, while...

The German economy remains robust in a difficult international climate. In the current year, we expect GDP to increase by 2 per cent. That represents a reduction of 0.2 percentage points from our earlier forecast, mainly due to a slowdown in exports caused by sluggish growth in foreign markets...

The economic upswing in Germany is set to continue. GDP is likely to grow 1.9 percent this year and 2.1 percent next year. Strong domestic drivers remain the dominant factors. The significantly lower number of refugees arriving since the start of the year will be mainly reflected in a somewhat...

The economic upswing in Germany is set to continue despite heavy headwinds from abroad. We expect GDP to grow by 1.7 percent in 2017 and by 2.1 percent in 2018 after an increase of 1.9 percent in the current year. The slight deceleration in GDP growth in 2017 is due to temporary factors, in...

The expansion in Germany is set to continue despite headwinds from abroad. We leave our forecast as of autumn unchanged and expect GDP to grow by 1.9 percent in 2016 and by 1.7 percent in 2017. The effects of the Brexit-vote on the German economy will be modest in this period. The long-run...