We estimate a Markow-switching dynamic factor model with three states based on six leading business cycle indicators for Germany preselected from a broader set using the Elastic Net soft-thresholding rule. The three states represent expansions, normal recessions and severe recessions. We show...

We evaluate the usefulness of satellite-based data on nighttime lights for the prediction of annual GDP growth across a global sample of countries. Going beyond traditional measures of luminosity, such as the sum of lights within a country's borders, we propose several innovative distribution-...

It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

The economic recovery in the euro area remains moderate. While several sentiment indicators have improved considerably over the past few months, and therefore suggest that the recovery might gain some momentum, this has not yet been reflected in hard data, in particular not in the quarterly GDP...

The expansion in Germany continues. We leave our forecast as of December 2016 unchanged and expect GDP to grow by 1.7 percent in 2017 and by 2 percent in 2018. The somewhat weaker growth rate in 2017 results from the lower number of working days. Overall, the expansion is set to broaden. While...

The momentum of the expansion of the German economy is strong. Unchanged from our winter and spring forecasts, we expect a rise in gross domestic product by 1.7 percent in the current year and by 2 percent in 2018. This implies that throughout the forecasting period the expansion of aggregate...

In the second quarter of 2017, global output has reaccelerated after a somewhat muted start into the year. For the first time in a number of years, there is substantial economic momentum in almost all major economies at the same time. We expect world GDP growth on a PPP basis to rise to 3.7...

The pronounced expansion of the German economy accelerates further. Compared to our summer forecast, we adjust our forecast for the current and the next year upwards, and we expect gross domestic product to grow by 2 percent in the current year and 2.2 percent in the next year (summer forecast:...