Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir - DIW Berlin (Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung) - 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...