The cyclical variation behavior of the mortgage spread has motivated some studies to investigate its relationship to … economic activity. Indeed, recent empirical findings indicate that the mortgage spread is a determinant/predictor of economic … activity. We define the mortgage spread as the difference between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year Treasury rates and ask …

The cyclical variation behavior of the mortgage spread has motivated some studies to investigate its relationship to … economic activity. Indeed, recent empirical findings indicate that the mortgage spread is a determinant/predictor of economic … activity. We define the mortgage spread as the difference between the 30-year mortgage and 10-year Treasury rates and ask …

We analyze the predictive content of the mortgage spread for U.S. economic activity. We find that the spread contains … spread in a real-time forecasting exercise. However, the predictive ability of the mortgage spread varies over time. …