Search Results - subject:"Nairu"

The Decline of Activist Stabilization Policy : Natural Rate Misperceptions, Learning, and Expectations

Orphanides, Athanasios; Williams, John C. - 2021

We develop an estimated model of the U.S. economy in which agents form expectations by continually updating their beliefs regarding the behavior of the economy and monetary policy. We explore the effects of policymakers' misperceptions of the natural rate of unemployment during the late 1960s...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319355

The European Phillips Curve : Does the NAIRU Exist?

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - 2021

This paper has two aims. First, it provides simple theoretical models that highlight two channels whereby monetary shocks have permanent real effects and the interactions between these channels. Second, it presents an empirical dynamic model, covering a panel of EU countries, and derives the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319761

The Rise and Fall of Swedish Unemployment

Holmlund, Bertil - 2021

in NAIRU but do not appear as promising explanations of the events of the early 1990s. The fall in unemployment in the … NAIRU …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013319988

Natural Rate Doubts

Beyer, Andreas; Farmer, Roger E. A. - 2021

We study the low frequency comovements in unemployment, inflation and the federal funds rate in the U.S. From 1970 through 1979 all three series trended up together; after 1979 they all trended down. The conventional explanation for the buildup of inflation in the 1970's is that the Fed reacted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320253

A System Approach for Measuring the Euro Area NAIRU

Fabiani, Silvia; Mestre, Ricardo - 2021

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU for the euro area and assessing the robustness and precision of … cyclical unemployment and the output gap with a Phillips curve and stochastic laws of motion for the NAIRU and potential output …-wide NAIRU that is robust to changes in the underlying models. This robustness is shown to hold both in terms of the mean - i …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320281

Alternative Measures of the NAIRU in the Euro Area : Estimates and Assessment

Fabiani, Silvia; Mestre, Ricardo - 2021

The paper focuses on the measurement of the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating-Inflation-Rate-of-Unemployment) for the euro area … presents several estimates of the area-wide NAIRU based on a number of direct (or statistical) techniques. The latter range … different estimates of the aggregate NAIRU appear to be consistent and robust with respect to alternative specifications …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320321

Unemployment Invariance

Karanassou, Marika; Snower, Dennis J. - 2021

This paper provides a critique of the "unemployment invariance hypothesis," according to which the behavior of the labor market ensures that the long-run unemployment rate is independent of the size of the capital stock, productivity, and the labor force. Using Solow growth and endogenous growth...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320451

Unemployment in the European Union : A Dynamic Reappraisal

Karanassou, Marika; Sala, Hector; Snower, Dennis J. - 2021

This paper examines the movements in EU unemployment from two perspectives: (a) the NRU/NAIRU perspective, in which …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320470

Unemployment Benefits, Contract Length and Nominal Wage Flexibility

Calmfors, Lars; Johansson, Asa - 2021

We show in a union-bargaining model that a decrease in the unemployment benefit level increases not only equilibrium employment, but also nominal wage flexibility, and thus reduces employment variations in the case of nominal shocks. Long-term wage contracts lead to higher expected real wages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320878

Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate : An Account of UK Unemployment

Snower, Dennis J.; Henry, Brian; Karanassou, Marika - 2021

Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment. This paper challenges what is the standard account of UK unemployment, namely that the major swings in unemployment over the past 25 years are due predominantly to movements in the underlying empirical "natural rate of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321353