We investigate the relation between one-year reserve risk and ultimate reserve risk in Mack Chain Ladder model in a simulation study. The first goal is to validate the so-called linear emergence pattern formula, which maps the ultimate loss to the one-year loss, in case when we measure the risks...

We investigate the relation between one-year reserve risk and ultimate reserve risk in Mack Chain Ladder model in a simulation study. The first goal is to validate the so-called linear emergence pattern formula, which maps the ultimate loss to the one-year loss, in case when we measure the risks...

We study the dynamics of the one-year change in P&C insurance reserves estimation by analyzing the process that leads to the ultimate risk in the case of 'fixed-sum' insurance contracts. The random variable ultimately is supposed to follow a binomial distribution. We compute explicitly various...

We study the dynamics of the one-year change in P&C insurance reserves estimation by analyzing the process that leads to the ultimate risk in the case of “fixed-sum” insurance contracts. The random variable ultimately is supposed to follow a binomial distribution. We compute explicitly...