In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation … the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …

Survey questions that elicit point predictions regarding uncertain events face an important challenge as human … whether alternative formulations of the questions used to elicit point predictions can be successful in driving forecasters … draws coming from an objectively known distribution. We elicit the subjects' point predictions in four treatments, in which …

In this paper we present an evaluation framework for predictions of binary events in probabilistic electricity price … particularly suited for the evaluation of predictions of rare events. We consider binary events with direct applicability to a …

In this article, we study the point predictions that forecasters report when they are asked to predict the realisation … the next draw as a forecast. We find that most of the forecasters report point predictions that are close to one of the …