Based on a comprehensive tourism forecasting competition using Portugal's regional data, we study the impact of COVID-19 on the ability of time series models to forecast tourism demand. We find that the stable seasonal patterns observed before the pandemic did not persist in 2020, but regions...

We forecast recessions in Canada using an autoregressive (AR) probit model. In this model, the presence of the lagged latent variable, which captures the autocorrelation in the recession binary variable, results in an intractable likelihood with a high dimensional integral. Therefore, we employ...

The Chinese economy is facing the impact of soaring energy prices, including the prices of coal, electricity and oil. The impacts of energy price fluctuations on general prices have a significant delayed effect. A novel price-temporal input-output (I-O) method is proposed to measure these...