Ferrara, Laurent; Guégan, Dominique - In: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis 2005 (2005) 3, pp. 353-371
In this paper, we consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account certain stylized facts of the business cycle, such as asymmetries in the phases of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given in real-time....