Jakobsson, Kristofer; Söderbergh, Bengt; Snowden, Simon; … - In: Energy Economics 34 (2012) 4, pp. 1226-1233
It has been suggested that oil exploration may lead to false perceptions of decreasing scarcity. We perform a simulation of the exploration process using Bayesian updating. The approach enables us to isolate the information effect on the success rate and also to quantify the subjective...