The Great Moderation and Stock Valuation Using quarterly data since 1953, we estimate a fundamental-based empirical model for the US real stock prices and earning-price ratio. Applying the VECM methodology instead of traditional VAR to explain low frequency movements of stock valuation, we...

Behavioral theories predict that firm valuation dispersion in the cross-section (“dispersion”) measures aggregate overpricing caused by investor overconfidence and should be negatively related to expected aggregate returns. This paper develops and tests these hypotheses. Consistent with the...