Over the past few decades, fiscal policy has been about 30 percent more procyclical and about 40 percent more volatile in commodity-exporting emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) than in other EMDEs. Both procyclicality and volatility of fiscal policy-which share some underlying...

We develop a score-driven time-varying parameter model where no particular parametric error distribution needs to be specified. The proposed method relies on a versatile spline-based density, which produces a score function that follows a natural cubic spline. This flexible approach nests the...

We utilize Bayesian model averaging to estimate a stochastic discount factor (SDF) for single-stock options. A Bayesian model averaging SDF outperforms reduced-form benchmark models in-sample and out-of-sample in pricing option return anomalies and portfolios. We document that the SDF is dense...

We propose a state-dependent Phillips curve (PC) where the regime has changed endogenously. Using this framework, a free-standing PC is constructed. This study tests the robustness of the model, various types of inflation, slack measures, and various expectation measures. The PC is found to work...

Examining the economies of the European Union from 2000 to 2023, we have found no strong evidence that the inflation rate has a negative impact on economic growth. In contrast, in line with conventional economic theory, higher interest rates are associated with lower economic growth. The results...

While there is a large body of literature on oil uncertainty-equity prices and/or returns nexus, an associated important question of how oil market uncertainty affects stock market bubbles remains unanswered. In this paper, we first use the Multi-Scale Log-Periodic Power Law Singularity...